{"id":13967,"date":"2023-11-14T15:00:57","date_gmt":"2023-11-14T15:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/TheNextWeb=1401504"},"modified":"2023-11-14T15:00:57","modified_gmt":"2023-11-14T15:00:57","slug":"deepminds-new-ai-promises-the-most-accurate-10-day-weather-forecasts-in-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/?p=13967","title":{"rendered":"DeepMind\u2019s new AI promises the most accurate 10-day weather forecasts in the world"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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A new AI model Google DeepMind is the world\u2019s most accurate 10-day global weather forecasting system, according to the London-based lab.<\/p>\n

Named GraphCast, the model promises medium-range weather forecasts of \u201cunprecedented accuracy.\u201d In research published today, GraphCast was found to be more precise and faster than the industry gold standard for weather simulation, the High-Resolution Forecast (HRES).<\/p>\n

The system also predicted extreme weather from a more distant future than was previously possible. <\/span>These insights were analysed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an intergovernmental organisation that produces the HRES. <\/span><\/p>\n

A live version of Graphcast was deployed on the ECMWF website. <\/span>In September, the system accurately predicted that Hurricane Lee would make landfall in Nova Scotia around nine days in advance. <\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast, <\/span>traditional forecasting methods only spotlighted Nova Scotia around six days ahead of time. They also provided less consistent predictions of the time and location of landfall.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Intriguingly, GraphCast can identify dangerous weather events without being trained to find them. After integrating a simple cyclone tracker, the model predicted cyclone movement more accurately than the HRES method.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such data could save lives and livelihoods. As the climate becomes more extreme and unpredictable, fast and accurate forecasts will provide increasingly vital insights for disaster planning.<\/span><\/p>\n

Matthew Chantry, a machine learning coordinator at the ECMWF, believes his industry has reached a monumental turning point.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s probably more work to be done to create reliable operational products, but this is likely the beginning of a revolution,\u201d Chantry said at a press briefing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meteorological organisations, he added, had previously expected AI to be most useful when merged with physics. Recent breakthroughs, however, show machine learning can also directly forecast weather.<\/span><\/p>\n

How GraphCast works<\/h2>\n

Conventional weather forecasts are based on intricate physics equations. <\/span>These are then adapted into algorithms that can run on supercomputers.<\/span><\/p>\n

The process can be painstaking. It also requires specialist knowledge and vast computing resources.<\/span><\/p>\n

GraphCast harnesses a different technique. The model combines machine learning with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), an architecture that\u2019s adept at processing spatially structured data.<\/span><\/p>\n

To learn the causes and effects that determine weather changes, the system was trained on de<\/span>cades of weather information. <\/span><\/p>\n

Traditional approaches are also incorporated. <\/span>The ECMWF supplied Graphcare with training data from around 40 years of weather reanalysis, which encompassed monitoring from satellites, radars and weather stations. <\/span><\/p>\n

When there are gaps in these observations, traditional physics-based prediction methods fill them in. The result is a detailed history of global weather. <\/span>GraphCast uses these lessons from the past to predict the future. <\/span><\/p>\n

The system then makes predictions at a spatial resolution of 0.25-degrees latitude\/longitude. <\/span><\/p>\n

To put that into perspective, imagine the Earth divided into a million grid points. <\/span>At each point, the model predicts five Earth-surface variable and six atmospheric variables. They cover both the surface of the global and its entire atmosphere in 3D over 37 levels.
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The variables encompass temperature, wind, humidity, precipitations, and sea-level pressure. They also incorporate geopotential \u2014 the gravitational potential energy of a unit mass, at a particular location, relative to mean sea level.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition to its speed and accuracy, GraphCast is highly efficient. A 10-day forecast takes under a minute to complete on a single Google TPU v4 machine. A conventional approach, meanwhile, can take hours of computation in a supercomputer with hundreds of machines.<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new AI model Google DeepMind is the world\u2019s most accurate 10-day global weather forecasting system, according to the London-based lab. Named GraphCast, the model promises medium-range weather forecasts of \u201cunprecedented accuracy.\u201d…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13968,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13967"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13967"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13967\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}