{"id":14441,"date":"2024-02-19T11:00:52","date_gmt":"2024-02-19T11:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/TheNextWeb=1403978"},"modified":"2024-02-19T11:00:52","modified_gmt":"2024-02-19T11:00:52","slug":"why-no-one-knows-quite-when-a-descending-satellite-will-hit-earth-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/?p=14441","title":{"rendered":"Why no one knows quite when a descending satellite will hit Earth this week"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><span>A satellite will hurtle down to Earth this week and no one knows quite when or where it\u2019s going to <span>land \u2014 but<\/span>&nbsp;there\u2019s no need to worry. In the space sector, this is standard operating procedure.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The satellite in question is the European Space Agency\u2019s ERS-2. Launched in 1995, the spacecraft set new standards for Earth observation. It was also an extremely durable machine. Despite an original mission life of just three years, ERS-2 made it to the ripe old age of 15 before its operations were terminated in 2011.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Although the satellite was still functioning nominally, ESA initiated a de\u2013orbit to mitigate the proliferation of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/europe-space-debris-cleanup-mission\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>space junk<\/span><\/a><span> \u2014 a growing threat as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/europe-space-sector-3-orbital-launches-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>rocket launches<\/span><\/a><span>&nbsp;surge.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The descent began with a sequence of 66 deorbiting manoeuvres. This consumed all the satellite\u2019s remaining fuel and lowered its average altitude from 785km to 573km, which reduced the collision risks.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"inarticle-wrapper latest channel-cta hs-embed-tnw\">\n<div id=\"hs-embed-tnw\" class=\"channel-cta-wrapper\" readability=\"8.5\">\n<div class=\"channel-cta-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"js-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/events.tnw\/hardfork-2018\/uploads\/visuals\/tnw-newsletter.png\"><\/div>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/events.tnw\/hardfork-2018\/uploads\/visuals\/tnw-newsletter.png\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<div class=\"channel-cta-input\" readability=\"12\">\n<p class=\"channel-cta-title\">The &lt;3 of EU tech<\/p>\n<p class=\"channel-cta-tagline\">The latest rumblings from the EU tech scene, a story from our wise ol&#8217; founder Boris, and some questionable AI art. It&#8217;s free, every week, in your inbox. Sign up now!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>ERS-2 was then \u201cpassivated\u201d \u2014 a process that removes the energy sources that could cause fragmentation or explosions. The remainder of the journey was then left to the cosmos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>As an uncontrolled re-entry, ESA couldn\u2019t determine the exact date of the return to Earth, but predicted that it would happen within the next 15 years.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Thirteen years later, the big day is almost here. ERS-2 has begun plunging into the lower layers of the atmosphere, where it will start burning up. But the precise time \u2014 and location \u2014 of the arrival on our planet remains unclear.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"post-image post-mediaBleed aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1403979 js-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the declining altitude of the ERS-2 satellite ahead of its re-entry\" width=\"726\" height=\"400\" sizes=\"(max-width: 726px) 100vw, 726px\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51.png 726w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51-280x154.png 280w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51-245x135.png 245w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51-490x270.png 490w\"><figcaption><a href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/ers-2-satellite-re-entry-prediction-uncertain#\" data-url=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Feditorial.thenextweb.com%2Fdeep-tech%2F2024%2F02%2F19%2Fers-2-satellite-re-entry-prediction-uncertain%2F&amp;via=thenextweb&amp;related=thenextweb&amp;text=Check out this picture on: The initial manoeuvres pulled the satellite towards a safer altitude where it would further decay. Credit: ESA\" data-title=\"Share The initial manoeuvres pulled the satellite towards a safer altitude where it would further decay. Credit: ESA on Twitter\" data-width=\"685\" data-height=\"500\" class=\"post-image-share popitup\" title=\"Share The initial manoeuvres pulled the satellite towards a safer altitude where it would further decay. Credit: ESA on Twitter\"><i class=\"icon icon--inline icon--twitter--dark\"><\/i><\/a>The initial manoeuvres pulled the satellite towards a safer altitude where it would further decay. Credit: ESA<\/figcaption><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1403979\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the declining altitude of the ERS-2 satellite ahead of its re-entry\" width=\"726\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51.png 726w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51-280x154.png 280w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51-245x135.png 245w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-16-at-15.49.51-490x270.png 490w\"><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<h2>ERS-2 is almost home<\/h2>\n<p><span>ESA\u2019s latest prediction \u2014 revealed this morning \u2014 is that the re-entry wi<\/span><span>ll take place at 12:14 CET on February 21.&nbsp;There\u2019s an uncertainty window, however, of about two-thirds of a day (+\/- 15.06 hours) \u2014<\/span><span>&nbsp;which is typical at this point. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The standard margin of error for these forecasts is <\/span><span>20%. Twenty-four hours before re-entry, for instance, the uncertainty should be around 4.8 hours, plus or minus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>This variability stems primarily from volatile solar activity. A collective term for all active phenomena on the Sun, from <\/span><span>high-speed winds to flares, solar activity affects the drag that guides the speed and location of satellites. It\u2019s also hard to forecast.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/openportal.isti.cnr.it\/data\/2016\/362234\/2016_%20362234.published.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span>Further curbs<\/span><\/a><span> on the predictions include patchy tracking data, the complicated shape of reentering objects, mismodelling of conditions, and inexact computation. Forecasts can also be inhibited by our limited knowledge of the atmosphere in very <a href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/low-earth-orbit-launchpad-for-europe-space-tech-startups-leo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">low orbits<\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>When the big moment finally comes, most of ERS-2 will burn up in the atmosphere. Some fragments, however, may survive. The heaviest one that could reach Earth is the 52kg antenna structure of the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Thankfully, the chances of it hitting anyone are miniscule. According to ESA, the annual risk of a person being injured by space debris is under one in 100 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/ers-2-satellite-re-entry-prediction-uncertain\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A satellite will hurtle down to Earth this week and no one knows quite when or where it\u2019s going to land \u2014 but&nbsp;there\u2019s no need to worry. In the space sector, this&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14442,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14441"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/14442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.londonchiropracter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}